共和党は今週、まれな中間選挙大会を開く。政治の内側を知る関係者は、過去の経験を踏まえて、選挙期間にもたらされる混乱と費用のためにこの種の大会を「crazy」と退けてきた。中間選挙大会は現代の米国政治ではきわめて珍しく、通常、全国党大会は大統領選の年にのみ開かれ、党がホワイトハウス候補を正式に指名する場となる。だが、ドナルド・トランプ大統領の要請を受け、GOPはそれでも実施に踏み切っており、専門家はこの動きが党を「political suicide」へ導きかねないと警告している。

月曜日に公表されたthe Guardianの新たな報道によると、共和党のダラス大会は、士気を高め、下院・上院選挙を全国規模で位置づけ、共和党有権者を鼓舞するための「primetime showcase」として宣伝されている。しかし同紙は、「success is far from guaranteed. The made-for-TV spectacle clashes directly with the two opening games of the American football season. A Politico website survey of more than 70 Republican candidates and members found 45 who either do not plan to go to Dallas or are still thinking about it. Some cited prior commitments while others balked at the $25,000 price of attending.」と指摘した。

トランプ氏自身は、このイベントが自分中心のものだと明確にしているが、Newsweekはそれが敗因になり得ると報じている。11月の選挙では下院435議席すべてと上院のおよそ3分の1が争われ、人気のない大統領の所属政党は中間選挙で議席を失いやすい傾向があるため、支持基盤の熱量はGOP戦略家にとって重要な課題となっている。

ブルッキングス研究所のガバナンス研究上級研究員、エレイン・カマーク氏は、「This is essentially a Trump rally that they're calling a midterm convention」と述べ、「They're trying to get enthusiasm among their base because that's what they need for November. Basically, this is a Trump show.」と語った。

ただし、the Guardianによれば、「It appears the plan could backfire. Trump's approval rating is at 33 percent, the lowest point of his political career, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll last week. Democrats seem more fired up about the midterms with 46 percent describing themselves as 'very enthusiastic' about voting in November, compared with 31 percent of Republicans.」という。

下院で共和党の広報責任者を務めたタラ・セットメイヤー氏は、支持を失っている大統領を軸に中間選挙大会を組み立てることは「political suicide」に等しいと主張し、「It is an incredibly risky strategy for any Republican at this point to hitch his wagon to Donald Trump. On every issue that Trump was once strong on he is underwater, from the economy to immigration.」と述べた。

さらにセットメイヤー氏は、「The idea that he's going to excite people is flawed at this point, given the polling numbers in Donald Trump's own constituency. They're not inspired and this vanity convention is not going to change that with 60 days to go to the election. If anything, it's going to remind people of how dissatisfied they are under Donald Trump's second term.」と付け加えた。

the Guardianはまた、大統領が「could be more of a curse than a blessing」であることを示す兆候があると報じている。「Some candidates are quietly scrubbing his likeness from their websites in a tactical retreat. In Texas, candidate Carlos De La Cruz replaced 'Trump Conservative' with 'Proven Conservative' on his homepage, erasing a line about being 'ready to be President Trump's wingman in Congress' for a platitude about 'servant leaders.' In Kentucky, Ralph Alvarado pivoted to 'Independent Leadership.' In Nevada, Martin O'Donnell, a music composer best known for his work on the Halo video game series, no longer features his Trump endorsement photo on his website. In South Texas, Eric Flores replaced 'Support for President Trump's Agenda' with 'Lower the Cost of Living.' In Alaska, Nick Begich edited his homepage to a simple: 'We have delivered for Alaska.'」

トランプ氏はまた、Lake Ontarioの改称命令やイランに対する戦争をめぐって、共和党内から反発を受けている。トランプ氏はこれらの批判を一蹴している。

ワシントンのアメリカン大学で歴史学を教えるアラン・リックマン氏はthe Guardianに対し、「He doesn't care about any of these other candidates. He only cares about two things when it comes to the midterms: one, that he won't be investigated and two, that he can get his appointments through the Senate. He demands loyalty for everyone else and gives loyalty to no one.」と語った。

リックマン氏はさらに、「People aren't buying what they have to say, which is things are getting better, it's the golden age, prices are coming down, we're winning the Iranian war, our immigration policy is great. They're not gonna buy it just because it's a convention. Plus, as we know, Trump always goes off script and that's never helpful to his party.」と述べた。

保守系コメンテーターのチャーリー・サイクス氏によると、中間選挙の行方は、トランプ氏の歴史的な不人気が、共和党による民主党への「communists」という非難を上回るかどうかに大きく左右される。これは大会の主要テーマの一つになる見通しだ。ただサイクス氏は、「The big question is, who is going to be paying any attention to this? Who is going to be watching this other than the hardcore base, the already convinced? I have a very hard time imagining independent voters tuning in to see the Trumpist pageantry.」と問いかけた。

サイクス氏はさらに、「It is a Trump-a-palooza and once again Donald Trump insists on being – what was the old phrase about Teddy Roosevelt? – the bride at every wedding and the corpse at every funeral」と述べた。