Bitcoin is displaying mid-to-late bear market characteristics, according to Bitfinex Alpha, as trading volume and on-chain activity slow sharply and liquidity fades across the market.

The asset remains locked between the long-term realized price of $52,699 and the short-term holder's realized price of $67,176. Realized price measures the value of the Bitcoin supply at the price at which each coin last moved on-chain, providing a proxy for the average cost basis of different holder cohorts; on-chain analysts typically classify supply that last moved within the past 155 days as short-term holder coins. A median realized price near $63,200 has served as support over the past two weeks. Weekly US spot Bitcoin ETF outflows and a declining stablecoin supply suggest fresh liquidity has yet to return, even as macro conditions improve. Because stablecoins such as USDT and USDC anchor most crypto trading pairs, their aggregate supply is widely tracked as a proxy for capital positioned to enter the market.

価格は主要な支持水準の間で停滞

Bitcoin closed the week down 3.1 percent at $62,921, breaking a run of gains, Bitfinex Alpha reported. The pullback came even as the wider macro backdrop turned more favorable for risk assets. Inflation data cooled and producer prices held flat over the same period, the report noted, while weakening consumer demand pushed the odds of a September rate hike below 50 percent for the first time in weeks.

Despite those tailwinds, digital asset markets failed to capitalize on the improving backdrop, according to Bitfinex Alpha, with demand-side exhaustion emerging as the primary factor behind the muted response.

US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first net-negative week in three, shedding $385.2 million in outflows, the report stated. Since launching in January 2024, the funds have become a main conduit for institutional Bitcoin exposure, so their weekly net flows are watched closely as a real-time gauge of demand. Strategy, the largest publicly listed corporate holder of Bitcoin and formerly known as MicroStrategy, added to the pressure with a third straight weekly divestment, marking a rare alignment of ETF and corporate treasury selling.

The Aggregate Realized Price at $52,699 continues to support the broader Bitcoin market, Bitfinex Alpha noted, suggesting long-term holders have largely avoided slipping into underwater positions. Reclaiming the $67,176 short-term holder level would restore profitability for recent buyers, the report explained, and would also test overhead resistance that has capped price action for weeks.

A break below the median realized price carries downside risk, according to Bitfinex Alpha. Such a move could put the June low of $57,803 back into focus. Bitcoin has held this narrow range for nearly a quarter, the report noted, with volatility continuing to contract as the primary trend boundaries converge.

流動性は数年ぶりの低水準に低下

Spot exchange volume, adjusted for coin count rather than dollar value, has slumped to levels last seen in early 2019, Bitfinex Alpha explained. The adjustment accounts for distortions created by Binance's zero-fee trading, which was introduced during the prior bear market; such promotions draw high-frequency trading that inflates raw volume readings without a proportional rise in real demand. When filtered for Binance alone, the metric is testing depths last recorded during the 2023 bear market, the report added.

Bitcoin transfer velocity, a measure of how frequently coins change hands relative to the overall supply and a core gauge of on-chain economic activity, has also dropped to a seven-year low, a decline that reflects broader apathy across the network, according to Bitfinex Alpha. Reduced on-chain activity has coincided with the thinning of spot trading volume overall, leaving both trading venues and the network itself at similarly depressed activity levels.

Thin trading conditions tend to amplify the impact of even modest flows, the report stated. Small buying pressure can spark rallies just as easily as minor selling can trigger downside breaks.

Historical patterns suggest depressed participation levels rarely persist for extended stretches, Bitfinex Alpha noted. Such conditions have typically served as a precursor to sharp volatility expansion in past cycles, and the report pointed to prior instances where extended compression preceded a decisive directional move. Current positioning appears consistent with that broader historical pattern.

Bitfinex Alpha expects volatility expansion to follow the current period of compression. Price has held above the median realized price despite repeated tests from sellers, and that resilience, combined with late bear market signals, tilts the odds toward an eventual move higher, the report said. ETF inflows and renewed stablecoin supply growth remain the key indicators to watch going forward.