@Crypto_Briefing•11 minuti fa
When a World Cup match turns, the match market is not the only price that moves.
We took 95 goal-sized repricing episodes across 608 linked World Cup markets between June 11 and July 4 and asked which other markets moved with each one.
When a match market repriced 10 cents or more, the group-winner market moved with it 80% of the time. In the same window 24 hours earlier, with no shock, 8.4%.
The co-move fades with distance from the match. Progression markets 49.5% against 13.7% a day earlier. Top scorer 15.8% against 4.2%. The tournament winner 9.8% against 0.6%.
The size of the co-move fades too. A median 63.3 cents on other lines in the same match, down to two tenths of a cent on the title.
The day-earlier column is the whole argument. It is what tells you the near moves are the shock and not the markets own noise.
One shock, a whole tree of markets, and almost nothing reaches the top.
Every number is a frequency or a magnitude, never a direction and never a call.
The dataset behind it is Vera.
