Brian Moynihan, amministratore delegato di Bank of America, ha affermato di aspettarsi che la Federal Reserve aumenti i tassi di interesse tre volte quest’anno, formulando una previsione notevolmente più specifica rispetto al linguaggio più prudente tipicamente usato dagli stessi funzionari della Fed.

In un’intervista a CNBC, Moynihan ha detto di attendersi rialzi nei prossimi incontri del Federal Open Market Committee di settembre, novembre e dicembre. Ha aggiunto che gli attuali decisori ritengono che tre aumenti sarebbero sufficienti a riportare l’inflazione sotto controllo, pur avvertendo che lo scenario potrebbe cambiare se i dati sull’inflazione continuassero a sorprendere al ribasso.

"If it goes better than, like last month, it went down better than people thought, then I'm sure they would change that expectation," ha detto Moynihan. "But right now, they think that three hikes gets the Fed in a place that they can have the inflation tamed."

Le restanti riunioni dell’FOMC per quest’anno sono previste a settembre, ottobre e dicembre.

Sul più ampio andamento dell’inflazione, Moynihan ha detto di aspettarsi che la crescita dei prezzi si stabilizzi nella fascia "mid-2s" entro la fine del 2027, per poi diminuire gradualmente verso l’obiettivo di lungo periodo del 2% della Fed. Ha attribuito la recente ripresa dell’inflazione all’effetto combinato di dazi e conflitto in corso, entrambi fattori che, secondo lui, stanno iniziando a perdere forza come driver delle pressioni sui prezzi.

"If you look at the issues of inflation rolling through the economy, it was mitigating and then popped back up because of the impact on prices from tariffs, impact on prices from the war, and that's coming back down," ha detto.

Le sue osservazioni seguono i dati diffusi la scorsa settimana dal Dipartimento del Commercio, secondo cui l’Indice delle spese per consumi personali (Personal Consumption Expenditures Index), il indicatore inflazionistico preferito dalla Fed, è salito del 3,7% su base annualizzata a giugno. Il core PCE, che esclude i costi volatili di alimentari ed energia, è aumentato del 3,3% annualizzato, con un rialzo dello 0,1% su base mensile, confermando che le pressioni di fondo sui prezzi restano ben al di sopra dell’obiettivo della banca centrale.

Moynihan ha anche affrontato il possibile impatto di tassi più elevati sulla costruzione di infrastrutture per l’intelligenza artificiale, un’area dell’economia che ha attirato ingenti investimenti da parte delle grandi società tecnologiche. Ha detto di non aspettarsi che ulteriori rialzi incidano in modo significativo sul finanziamento a breve termine utilizzato dalle aziende per sostenere progetti di data center e infrastrutture IA. Ha aggiunto che i rendimenti generati dagli investimenti nei data center sono abbastanza solidi da consentire alle aziende di assorbire anche costi di indebitamento più alti sui bond a lungo termine, suggerendo che il ciclo di investimenti nell’IA difficilmente subirà un’interruzione significativa anche se la Fed dovesse procedere con ulteriori rialzi quest’anno.

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BofA's Moynihan says the Fed likely needs three more hikes this year to tame inflation, but doesn't expect that to derail the AI infrastructure boom.

Summary:

BofA CEO Brian Moynihan expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times this year, in September, November and December

He said this expectation could change if inflation data continues to come in better than expected, as it reportedly did last month

Moynihan expects inflation to reach the "mid-2s" by the end of 2027, before eventually returning to the Fed's 2% long-term target

He attributed the recent pickup in inflation to the effects of tariffs and the war, which he says are now fading

The PCE Index rose 3.7% annualized in June, while core PCE, which excludes food and energy, rose 3.3% annualized, up 0.1% month on month

Moynihan said he does not expect rate hikes to affect short-term financing for AI infrastructure buildouts, and that data center returns are strong enough to absorb higher long-term borrowing costs as well

Main article: Bank of America Chief Executive Brian Moynihan said he expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates three times this year, a view that stands out for its specificity relative to the more guarded language typically offered by Fed officials themselves.

Speaking in an interview with CNBC, Moynihan said he expects hikes in September, November and December, adding that policymakers currently believe three increases would be sufficient to bring inflation under control. He noted, however, that the outlook could shift if inflation data continues to surprise to the downside, pointing to a recent month in which price growth came in better than expected. "If it goes better than, like last month, it went down better than people thought, then I'm sure they would change that expectation," he said. "But right now, they think that three hikes gets the Fed in a place that they can have the inflation tamed."

On the trajectory for inflation more broadly, Moynihan said he expects price growth to settle in the "mid-2s" by the end of 2027, before gradually moving down into the Fed's longer-term 2% target range after that. He attributed the recent resurgence in inflation to the combined impact of tariffs and the ongoing war, both of which he said are now beginning to fade as drivers of price pressure. "If you look at the issues of inflation rolling through the economy, it was mitigating and then popped back up because of the impact on prices from tariffs, impact on prices from the war, and that's coming back down," he said.

His comments follow data released last week by the Commerce Department showing the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index, the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, rose 3.7% on an annualized basis in June. Core PCE, which strips out volatile food and energy costs, increased 3.3% annualized, up 0.1% on the month, underscoring that underlying price pressures remain well above the central bank's target.

Moynihan also addressed the potential impact of higher rates on the artificial intelligence infrastructure buildout, an area of the economy that has drawn heavy investment from major technology companies. He said he does not expect further rate increases to meaningfully affect the short-term financing companies are using to fund data center and AI infrastructure projects. He added that the returns being generated by data center investments are strong enough that companies should be able to absorb higher borrowing costs across long-term bonds as well, suggesting the AI investment cycle is unlikely to be significantly disrupted even if the Fed follows through with additional hikes this year.

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September, October and December are the three meeting to come for the remainder of this year.